Dramatic shift in El Niño forecasting for the remainder of 2015

Australians have been warned to take care as climate shifts have caused El Niño conditions to worsen between October until December. The drier months often make households and businesses look to water stored in their polyethylene water tanks. The new forecast means many will now rely more heavily on their reserves.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released its three-month forecast for the remainder of the year in early October. However, the climate experts were forced to change their predictions just two days after the release, as changes in the local environment made El Niño conditions more severe.

"Since we released the Climate Outlook, there has been a significant shift toward a drier October for much of Australia. It's highly likely this is related to a rapidly strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole," explained the BOM's Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins.

"We have been watching the waters to Australia's northwest for signs of sea surface cooling that could reinforce the impact of the current strong El Niño. We are now seeing these signs, and their impact has been reflected in the most recent model outlooks for October."

The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) called the new conditions "full-fat El Niño", compared to the "diet El Niño" we may have experienced before the climate shift. Essentially, many Australian regions will be hotter and drier, particularly on the southeast seaboard and the south coast. It puts more emphasis on making sure a rainwater tank has excellent UV resistance.

The chances of temperatures exceeding the average maximum between October and December are as high as 80 per cent in some of these southern regions, the SMH explained. Meanwhile, Alice Springs and the Red Centre may see a little more rainfall in the coming three months, giving residents a chance to fill up their poly water tanks.

As a result, those in the region may find it useful to speak to their local rainwater tank supplier, such as Bushmans in Northern Territory.

By Gerald Beckton